A pause, not a pivot
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 4.35% at its June 2026 meeting. No change today. But don't read that as the all-clear.
The decision was unanimous. The board held while it assesses the response to previous interest rate rises and the impact of the global oil supply disruption. The board remains focused on ensuring that inflation does not become embedded once the impulse from higher oil prices has passed through. "To achieve this, growth in demand needs to slow to reduce capacity pressures and help bring inflation back to target."
In plain terms: the RBA is watching. And it has left the door open to move again.
How we got here
The cash rate has risen three times in 2026, February, March, and May, each by 25 basis points. Each increase has added to the repayment burden already sitting on Australian households. Inflation sat at 4.2% in April, with the next update due Wednesday 24 June. That number will tell the RBA, and borrowers, a great deal about what happens next.
What are the banks saying?
ANZ — no further hikes. Two cuts of 25 basis points in September and December 2027, bringing the cash rate to 3.85% by the end of next year.
CBA — no further hikes. Two cuts of 25 basis points in May and September 2027, bringing the cash rate to 3.85% by the third quarter of next year.
NAB — no further hikes. Three cuts of 25 basis points in June, September and December 2027, bringing the cash rate to 3.60% by the end of next year.
Westpac — two more hikes of 25 basis points in August and September, taking the cash rate to 4.85%.
What the rate tracker shows
Bheja's open banking rate tracker shows 72 lenders have increased rates in the last 30 days, across 3,113 products. The average rate hike across those products was 0.24%.
The important thing to understand: lenders don't wait for the RBA. Rates are moving now, across dozens of lenders, regardless of what happened at 2:30pm today. If you haven't checked your rate recently, the market may have already moved around you.
What it means for your budget*
Three rate rises in five months. Fuel and grocery prices still elevated. Unemployment has risen to 4.5% and consumer confidence has dropped sharply.
A pause today doesn't undo what's already sitting on your home loan. What does another 25 basis point hike look like in practice?
- On a $600,000 loan: around $92 more per month
- On a $750,000 loan: around $115 more per month
- On a $1,000,000 loan: around $153 more per month
Across what would then be four hikes for the year (February, March, May, and August), the total monthly increase would be about $364 on a $600,000 loan.
And if you're already sitting on a rate that isn't competitive, the gap compounds. A 0.5% difference between your current rate and the best available rate on a $700,000 loan costs around $3,500 a year. That's money leaving your account every month—not because rates rose, but because you haven't checked.
Don't wait for August to act. The best time to review your home loan is before the next decision, not after.
Three things to do right now
Know your rate - Not your repayment, your actual interest rate. If you don't know the number, you can't know whether you're overpaying.
See where you sit - Bheja's rate tracker updates every lender, every product, every day using open banking data. Compare your current loan against what's available in the market right now—in minutes.
Move, if it makes financial sense - Refinancing takes time. If another rate rise lands before your application settles, you'll have absorbed a cost you could have sidestepped. Start the conversation now.
*Repayment figures are estimates based on an owner-occupier principal and interest loan with 25 years remaining, calculated at the RBA average variable rate as at the start of 2026. Individual repayments will vary depending on your loan balance, remaining term, interest rate, and repayment type. These figures are general in nature and do not account for your personal circumstances. Always check with your lender or a mortgage broker for figures specific to your loan.
**The RBA next meets on 5 August 2026. Inflation data for May is due Wednesday 24 June 2026. Rate tracker data: Bheja open banking rate tracker, updated 16 June 2026.
