Australian mortgages are facing new uncertainty after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 3.85% in February 2026. With inflation still high, many homeowners are wondering when the next RBA meeting is and if rates will rise again.
When is the next RBA Meeting?
The RBA Monetary Policy Board will meet on March 16–17, 2026.
- Announcement Date: Tuesday, 17 March 2026
- Announcement Time: 2:30 PM AEDT
- Media Conference: 3:30 PM AEDT with Governor Michele Bullock
RBA Rate Prediction: March and Beyond
Most experts expect the RBA to keep rates steady in March, with the ASX RBA Rate Tracker showing a 91% chance the rate will stay at 3.85%. Still, Governor Michele Bullock says each meeting is open to change, and more hikes are possible if inflation rises unexpectedly.
The "Big Four" banks (CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ) have all converged on a prediction for a 25-basis-point hike in May 2026, which would take the official cash rate to 4.10%.
The "Fuel Factor": Why Rates Might Rise
Global oil prices have risen after strikes in the Middle East. Experts warn that petrol prices could rise by $0.25 to $1.00 per litre if these disruptions continue.
"With a supply shock occurring in a situation where we already have high inflation, there is a risk that inflation expectations may start to move," Governor Bullock warned this week. The RBA is concerned that high petrol prices could push inflation further away from the 2–3% target.
Insights from the Frontline: Bheja.ai's Home Loans
While the RBA watches the "bowser," lenders are already moving. Pravin Mahajan, founder of Bheja.ai Home Loans, notes that the major banks are signalling a bumpy road ahead.
A recent Daily Mail report quoted Mahajan, who pointed out a major change by Commonwealth Bank (CBA) in its fixed-rate loans.
"CBA moved before the RBA even announced the first rise. Their pricing tells us they expect at least two more rises," says Pravin Mahajan of Bheja.ai. "The move effectively prices in three consecutive 0.25% RBA increases."
According to Bheja.ai Home Loans analysis, CBA’s sharp increase in its three-year fixed rate to 6.04%, a 0.7 percentage point jump, is the most aggressive 30-day move by a major lender this year. Mahajan warns that two additional 25-basis-point rises could add approximately $360 a month to a borrower's repayments on a $750,000 mortgage.
Expert Quotes on the 2026 Outlook
- Michele Bullock (RBA Governor): "I’m not making a prediction about March, but it will be a live meeting... we are paying more attention to the inflation side."
- Shane Oliver (AMP Chief Economist): "A $US40 a barrel rise in world oil prices... would act as a tax on households, forcing cutbacks elsewhere."
- Pravin Mahajan (Bheja.ai): "In this environment, homeowners can't afford to be passive. You need to be looking at your offset accounts and rate margins now, not after the March 17 announcement."
How to Prepare for the March 17 Decision
- Buffer for the "Double Hit": Prepare for higher transport costs and potential mortgage increases at the same time.
- Check your current interest rate. If your lender has not given you the full discounts, now is a good time to negotiate.
- Be sure to watch at 2:30 PM AEDT on March 17 to see if the RBA ignores the oil shock or decides to raise rates.
